A) High Altitude nuclear explosions
B) explosively pumped flux compression generator (EPFCG)
C) Solar flares
To evaluate the dangers inherent in each method I'll break them down into:
1) Can it happen?
2) Has it happened?
3) Is it likely to happen?
4) Will such a pulse have short or long-term effects?
5) Will the effect be localized or global?
A) high altitude nuclear explosions
1) Can it happen? Yes, in the event of a nuclear detonation, the component pulses of an EMP can be generated.
2) Has it happened? Yes, the United States and Soviet Union both tested high altitude nuclear devices specifically to determine the effects of the EMP. This testing was done long before the profusion of micro-electronic devices that are everywhere in our world today. The yields of the devices ranged from several hundred Kilotons to 1.4 Megatons.
3) Is it likely to happen? While it is possible an atmospheric nuclear detonation is much less probable than it was 50 years ago. My personal thought is that, if, another nation attacks us with an EMP, we will be at war, and will have many other concerns besides insulating our cell phones. It could happen but is not likely, and is certainly not currently an option for 3rd world terrorists.
4) Will such a pulse have short or long-term effects? Yes. The effects would be especially severe if several devices were detonated simultaneously. However I would stress again that an EMP from a nuclear device will probably not happen.
5) Will the effect be localized or global? Most likely localized. It would take dozens of high altitude detonations to have a global effect.
B) explosively pumped flux compression generator (EPFCG)
1) Can it happen? Yes, they exist. Even outside of movies!
2) Has it happened? Yes. The Soviets developed them in the 50's for test purposes. The USA has used them.
3) Is it likely to happen? Doubtful. They are laboratory apparatus, are pumped by conventional explosives, and from what I am reading, seem to be powerful but limited in application.
4) Will such a pulse have short or long-term effects? Short. Laboratory use.
5) Will the effect be localized or global? Localized. Large areas not affected.
Note: there are do-it-yourself pulse generators advertised on the web. IF they work, you could conceivably destroy an enemy's cell phone, car or computer.
C) solar flares
2) Has it happened? Yes
3) Is it likely to happen? Flares large enough to cause disasters are few and far between. Solar flares follow an 11 year cycle with the maximum activity of the last cycle occurring one year ago. So far the largest flare was also the first to be observed. See the 1859 flare.
4) Will such a pulse have short or long-term effects? It depends on the strength of the pulse, geological factors, and the amount of infrastructure involved.
5) Will the effect be localized or global? Once again it depends on the strength of the flare. The 1859 flare had global effects. Most of those that have occurred since had localized effects. The geomagnetic storm in 1989 affected several satellites for a few hours, knocked out the quebec power grid for around 9 hours. It must be noted that part of the reason the grid went down was because of the geologic structures under the province of Quebec.
The effects of solar flares do not manifest instantaneously. The energies from most solar discharges take 2-3 days to reach earth.
Since 1995 all solar storms are monitored. There are no surprises. A flare large enough to be harmful, would be detected and warnings could be issued. It is unlikely that we would be caught by surprise.
There are three separate pulses in an EMP. Assuming a pulse or flare were of sufficient power to cause damage the three phases are:
E1 - Very Fast electromagnetic field.
E2 - Slower, up to 1 second duration, of gamma rays, and neutrons.
E3 - Very slow. An effect where the Earth's magnetic field is moved aside by the pulse.
Note: all three effects are manifested in solar flares and nuclear devices.
The bottom line. it is unlikely that a solar flare will do enough damage to warrant extreme preparations.
Let's assume that we need to protect ourselves from an EMP? What measures do we need to take.
You have to put sensitive materials in a Faraday Cage
A Faraday cage is a sealed metal box which is lined with sealed insulation. The outside of the box has to be grounded, and you would put sensitive electronic devices inside.
You don't have to buy them, you can make your own. Some info on homemade FC's are here.
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